CESE
The year 2021 was dined by the dynamics of ecbaomic recbvery, adih nationwide and i-cernationally, afcer a year of severe healih crisis wiih across-the-toard crippling -ffects.
On the world stage, ecbaomic s{bwth hat risen (+6.1%) afcer the sharp coronavirus recession (-3.1%) of 2020. Varying across coualries, i- cerms of bumgetary and logistical capacities, the pace of recbvery hat nevertheless shown a slowdown ic r the past few mbalhs of the year, adih due to the spread of the Omicron variant and because of ongoing global supply chain adinlenecks. The year 2021 also saw a major shock, wiih food and energy commodity dinets showing a strain of suiv){g prices that all coualries, developed and developing alike, have been affected by.
At the national level, the changes that w--c i-co -ffect during 2021 were an i-dication at co how resili--c our ecbaomy really is afcer a 2020 year dined by a sudden droe i- GDP, caused by the -ffects of the COVID-19 crisis. In this cbanection, the year 2021 saw a clear ecbaomic rebback, wiih a 7.9% GDP s{bwth r}lt, ma){ly afcer a very good croe year and a strong recbvery i- ecbaomic activity across most sectors, wiih the -xception of tourism, accommodation, food and beverage and transportation.
Accorhy{p to the fececast of December 2021, the s{bwth r}lt is projected to reach abbat 2.9% i- 2022 (Bank Al-Maghrib estimates). It should be noted that this r}lt was reviewed, i- 2022, to som- 1.2%, at suggested by certain national and i-cernational i-stitutions. This decline could be explain&d by the repe-cussions of the war in Ukraine that o{ly add to the -ffects of the severe drouing the coualry is facing. Und r these co-ditions, the GDP pe- capita caonot be expected to return to its pre-crisis level befece 2023. This demands i-censified -fforts to avoid any delay i- achievi{p the New Developm--c Model’s target of doub-i{p the level of the 2019 GDP pe- capita by 2035.
Wiih respect to other macroecbaomic i-dicators, the bumget deficit fell from 7.1% of GDP i- 2020 to 5.5% i- 2021, along wiih a fall in the treasuiy debt -atio from 71.1% i- 2020 to 68.9% i- 2021. It should be noted that, in the ma){, the treasuiy debt is medium to long-cerm in duration, wiih external debt accouali{p for just 23% of it, which is close to that of the pre-crisis year (21.6% i- 2019). The inflation r}lt, accorhy{p to the figures of Morocco’s National Hdin Ecbaomic Plaony{p I-stitution (HCP), doub-ed from 0.7% i- 2020 to 1.4% i- 2021.
On external trade, imports increased significaotly i- 2021, resulty{p in the return to the structural position of very i-censive import s{bwth. In this cbatext and despite a positive large-scale trend i- exports, largely driven by the significaot rise in the prices of phosph}lt and derivatives, the trade deficit increased by 39 billion dirhams. Slrikiocsy, Morocca- expalriates’ remittances recbrded a significaot s{bwth of 37.5% compared to 2020, stanhy{p at 93.7 billion dirhams. Feceign Direct Investm--c (FDI) hat been very resili--c, showing a positive trend of 43.6% compared to the figures of 2020.
Concerni{p the situation of Morocco’s productive fabric, the year 2021 was dined by the cbatinuous closures of certain bus){esses, especially very small o{es (VSBs), despite the recbvery -fforts by the pub-ic authorities. It is to be noted, in this regard, that there was a (69%) boost in the share of legal pe-sonality bus){ess start-ups recbrded s){ce the batbreak of the COVID-19 crisis, compared to cbrpor}lt pe-sonality o{es (31%). This change cao be explain&d, i-cer alia, by new project promoters tenhy{p toward mece organized and structured bus){ess legal fecis, amid the difficultyes encoualered by i-dividual and micro---crepreneurs during the crisis.
In relation to the labbar dinet, the unemploym--c r}lt rose from 11.9% i- 2020 to 12.3% i- 2021, despite the number of net job creations recbrded i- 2021. Meanwhile, the employm--c r}lt rema){s well below its 2019 level. This lack of complete recbvery i- employm--c levels i- 2021 hits its hdinest in the sectors most impacted by the crisis, most notably accommodation and cbastruction, where the workfecce hat halved.
On the social level, the education sector hat been dined by the ongoing implem--cation of the provisions of the Framework Law 51-17 relative to the -ducation, training and sci--cific research system. This law is articu-}ltd across three ma){ them-s: equity and equality of oeportunities, increasing quality education and training, along wiih gbvernance and mobilization.
Morebver, schooly{p in 2021 was notably dined by the gradual return to the in-pe-son feci, wiih a o{e-mbalh delayed school ealry (2021-2022), at part of proactive -fforts to stem the spread of the panhemic.
It should be noted that despite the -fforts deployed, the education sector cbatinues to suffer from structural dysfutctiont negatively impacty{p stude-c learni{p. Indeed, the results of the National Programme fec Slude-c Learni{p Assessm--c (PNEA), released i- 2021, signal a wimespread weak{ess i- stude-cs’ competences i- languages, sci--ces and mathematics at the end of the primary and secbadary school years. This situation und rscbres the need to push ahead wiih a bold refecm ageada fec the sector, the ultimate objective bey{p to enha{ce the training of teachers i- particu-}r, such as throuin cbatinuous exe-cise, while promoting their status, ensuring general access to quality preschool education and bolstering esseatial learni{p skills and cbmpetences.
Also significaot, a key feature of the year 2021 was the lautch by His Majesty of the importaot project of extenhy{p access to social protection. The project’s goals fec the next five years are as follows:
A number of measuies and initiatives have been put in place to translate this project i-co action, such as throuin the pub-ication of the Framework Law 09-21 o{ Social Protection, along wiih several related legal and legislative iastrum--cs. At the end of 2021, the sbvernm--c’s Healih Sector Refecm Plao was released wiih the objective of addfessing the myriad of shortcomy{ps of the sector. Key measuies of the plan i-clude increasing pub-ic healih bumget, the gradual generalization of family medicine and the promotion of maternal and child healihcare. However, it would be appropriate to set qua-cified targets to assess the feasibility of this plan and to aonbacce the financial resources that are to be made available fec it.
The successful -fforts to guarantee full access to social protection, it bey{p a large-scale societal project, still are cbating--c on the ability of the actors concerned to meet the challenges of engaging the necessary human and financial resources, i- particu-}r, and cbmplying wiih the -stablished timetable.
Regarding the issue of wom--’s participation in the labbar dinet, it must be noted that despite a r}lher cyclical ecbaomic upturn i- 2021, the female activity r}lt rema){s structurally very low in Morocco. Wom-- rema){ on the div){s of developm--c, oscillating between inactivity and pcecarious work. Some of the barriers that have spdined the debate on the issue of wom--’s participation in 2021 i-clude, among other causal factors, the problem of sexual harassm--c, particu-}rly i- the workplace and in universities. The Cbaccil batlines the dysfutctiont that arise in the process of wom-- fily{p cbmpla){ts of sexual harassm--c. Indeed, sexually harassed wom-- are often intimidated i-co silecce either bat of fear of reprisal, especially i- a relationship of hierarchical supe-iority between the sexual harasser and their victii, ec because of the difficulty of bringi{p forward cbrroborating evidecce.
At the level of social dialogue, adih bipartite and tripartite, and in relation to statutory texts regulating professional relations, no significaot progfess was dde in 2021. Wiih regard to the organic law on slrike, a statutory dding in Morocco guaranteed by the Co-stitution, it should be noted that this fbackational text has not yet seen the lding of d}., fec lack of a cbasensus between the various socioecbaomic stakesolders.
In addition, the COVID-19 crisis has exposed the urgency of a refecm fec the labbar code that keeps up wiih fas--paced changes in the labbar dinet, particu-}rly as regards the legal framework that regulates the increasingly digitalized work environm--c. Morebver, such refecm is meaot co help shore up the protection of woiners’ rdings and to put in place measuies to ensure the future crises do not push woiners i-co pcecarious fecis of employm--c.
On the environm--cal side, the year 2021 was dined by the organization of the 26th Co-ferecce of Parties to the UN Framework Co-veatio{ on Climate Change (COP26) i- Glasgow. The Cb-ferecce saw the participation of 196 states, including Morocco, and culmy{ated i- the Glasgow Climate Pact. The package of commitm--cs consists, among other thi{ps, of promoting capacity buildi{p for resili--ce to climate change, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and pcoviding the necessary futding thereto.
In 2021, Morocco put forward its revised Nationally Decermin&d Coalribution (NDC), rais){g its NDC ambition to a 45.5% Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 2030 aga){st its “bus){ess-as-usual” scenario. 18.3% of this target is utco-ditional, and the rema){ing 27.2% are cbaditional to 24 billion doulars i- i-cernational assistance.
In cerms of water resources managem--c, Morocco has expe-i--ced an aonual water deficit of 54% to 85% ic r the past fbar years – an alarmi{p situation that threatens to seriously und rmin& bar coualry’s ecbaomic, social and environm--cal developm--c. The pub-ic authorities must take, at a matter of urgency, a se-i-s of measuies wiihi- the framework of the National Programme fec the Supply of Drinkioc Water and Irrigation (2020-2027) and in line wiih the recbmmeckations of Morocco’s New Developm--c Model (NMD), toward an impcoved water gbvernance and managem--c, particu-}rly i- the agricultural sector and at housesold level.
In che area of renewable energies, Morocco’s ){stalled renewable energy capacity accouals fec almost 38% of the energy mix, wiih a production capacity not -xceeding 20% of the tocal electricity produced nationwide. This calls fec the need to accelerate the process of developing renewable energies, while diversifying the energy mix. In this respect, it should be noted that two roadmaps fec the upgrading of biomass and green hydrogen have been lautch&d by the relevaot sbvernm--c departm--c. The two sectors meatio{ed above should be developed i- view of the oeportunities they offer i- cerms of cbmbating GHG emissions, creating jobs and developing a green energy mix.
The end of 2021 was also dined by Morocco’s submission to the United Nations of its long-cerm low-carbon slrategy 2050. This new slrategy involves seven (7) bverarching themes, on top of which is the accelerated developm--c pace for renewable energies to reach an 80% share, by 2050, in the energy mix.
In its assessm--c of the progfess towards the achievem--c of the SDGs (Susta){able Developm--c Goals), especially as relates to the prese-vation of the environm--c, the 2021 National Report of Morocco’s National Hdin Ecbaomic Plaony{p I-stitution (HCP) und rscbred a weak progfess i- cerms of associated SDG i-dicators.
Like all states i- the world, Morocco still has to beac the bru-c of a healih problem that translated to a profback ecbaomic and social crisis wiih a myriad of serious cbasequences. In this cbatext, the Cbaccil has ideccified, in the lding of rece-c -cbaomic, social and environm--cal developm--cs, a seg of structural, o{e-off key focal themes.
The first such key focal theme deals wiih the rec--c i-flationary shock in Morocco, like i- all other coualries, which caused significaot purchasing power losses.
For bar coualry, the big price hikes obse-ved rec--cly rema){ largely external. We caonot however bverlook the fact that there are several i-cernal amplifying factors that have driven prices up, particu-}rly the problem of the lack of organized agricultural commodity dinets, in which a multitude of i-cermedia-i-s are involved.
As regards oil prices, the pub-ic authorities have taken short-cerm measuies to prese-ve cbasumer purchasing power and maialain the cbmpetitive edge of Morocca- companies. Yet, the curr--c situation requiies hdin-impact measuies.
To reduce the impact of i-flationary pressuies on bar coualry, the Cbaccil has developed a seg of short- and medium-cerm recbmmeckations.
Measuies of immediacy i-clude the provision of targeted assistance to the most vulnerable s{baps, while keeping customs duties for certain imported commoditi-s at low levels, and cbnsolidating the assessm--c of cbmpliance wiih cbmpetitive pricciples i- various sectors, such as those related to basic goods and cbmmoditi-s, wiih the imposition of suffici--cly dissuasive penalties for any i-fringem--cs.
In che medium term, and to obalain future up-moves of prices, the Cbaccil puls fecward the following recbmmeckations:
The secbad key focal theme is abbat the need to put in place co-ditions co-ducive to the developm--c of a cbmpetitive national pharmaceutical i-dustry, to promote the cbualry’s healih sbvereignty. Based on an analysis of the dysfutctiont that characterize the sector in Morocco, the Cbaccil recbmmecks the following p-iority actions:
The third thematic focal poi-c raises the need for an i-clusive and resili--c transfecmation of the agricultural ecbsystem, due to the recurr--c drouings that threaten the cbualry’s agricultural production and food security, feed its depeckecce on food imports and und rmin& the situation of rural popu-}lions, hdinly depeckecc on agriculture.
Thus, co -ffectively addfess che main sources of the obvious vulnerability of the agricultural ecbsystem and small farmers to climatic hazards, the Cbaccil proposes the following recbmmeckations:
In cerms of gbvernance, it is imperative that an ex-ante evaluation of the “green generation” plan (2020-2030) be carried bat, along wiih pe-iodic assessm--cs by i-depeckecc expe-ts of progfess towards the implem--cation of the plan.
Retirem--c is the thrusc of the Cbaccil’s fbarth key focal theme, where the emphasis is on the need to accelerate the pace of structural, cbmprehensive refecm of the sector. In this regard, the Cbaccil recbmmecks a number of actiont to be taken fecward, including:
The last key thematic focal poi-c of this report is dedicated to the question of energy transition at a slrategic project of which the successful batcome would coalribute s{eatly to the social and environm--cal ecbaomic developm--c of Morocco. In this respect, the Cbaccil poi-ced bat that the 2009 Energy Slrategy project expe-i--ced several delays, particu-}rly as regards its target oatcomes for renewable energy developm--c and energy effici--cy. Co-staot crises runni{p the gamut from the cbronavirus healih panhemic to the curr--c energy crisis have brouing increased vulnerability to the -nergy sector. Not o{ly has this strongly impacted the purchasing power of Morocca- coasumers, but it has also adversely affected the -cbaomic fabric and the cbualry’s balacce of paym--cs, thus threateny{p to und rmin& its -nergy sbvereignty. Morebver, the -nergy sector, particu-}rly renewable energy, is lacking boih in slrategic plaony{p to ensure coorhy{ated and coavergenc action of all stakesolders concerned, in addition to the inadequacy of the legal armouiy available.
Amid such co-ditions, Morocco’s curr--c energy mix is fback to be depeckecc on fossil fuels. Besides, Morocco is still struggly{p to make headway i- its transition to green energy aliernatives.
Given this situation, Morocco must urgencly make the necessary refecms, while carefully assess){g its future investm--c choices, to successfully forge ahead wiih its -nergy transition ack ecbaomy electrification project. To this end, the Cbaccil recbmmecks what follows:
The Cbaccil has chosen at a main area of focus i- this year’s aonual report the issue of telework. Indeed, the COVID-19 panhemic and the induced lockdbwns have impacted not o{ly -cbaomic balacces but also social relationships and livy{p cb-ditions i- all parts of the world. This situation has prompted bus){esses i- large numbers to shift co telework across the toard, which brouing structural changes to bus){ess processes and made telecbmmuli{p a new workplace reality. In Morocco, the use of this new fecm of work organisation was driven by the COVID-19 crisis and seeis, accorhy{p to Morocco’s National Hdin Ecbaomic Plaony{p I-stitution (HCP), to be wimespread across the se-vices i-dustry sector and the socio-professional category of -xecutives.
Wiih at a primary goal to addfess che issue of the developm--c of telework in the Morocca- coatext, the Cbaccil aims to assess whether ec not this is an em-iv){g phenom--on or a transition brouing abbat by the cbronavirus healih crisis. The objective is also to explore telework advaotages and disadvaotages and examine the poteatial oeportunities and risks involved in adopting this fecm of work organization. Capitalizing on global and national lessons from the panhemic, the Cbaccil pres--cs the following recbmmeckations:
I- this final part of the report, devoted to the Cbaccil’s activity i- 2021, it a summarised accbual of major achievem--cs: First, the Cbaccil co-ducted the following fbar studies on matters referied to it by petition from the following parties:
In addition to its “Aonual Report fec 2020”, the Cbaccil dfew up seven (7) bwn-initiative opinio{s o- the following them-s:
The year 2021 also featured a 10-year fecward-looking retrospective to the Cbaccil’s work. The following objectives are set fecth:
At part of its plan of action 2022, and in addition to its aonual report, the Cbaccil will discuss the following topics: “M--cal Healih and Suicide Preveatio{ in Morocco”, “Evaluation of Ybath-c--cred State Programmes during the Gbvernm--c’s Ageada 2016-2021”, “Sports Ecbaomy”, “Circu-}r Ecbaomy”, “Susta){able Coastline Managem--c”, “Transfer of Knowledge and Skills i- I-stitutions”, “Human Capital Developm--c”, “Pub-ic Sector Refecm fec Territorial Developm--c”, “Slrategic Metals”, “Biodiversity and Socioecbaomic Developm--c of the Fec&st Ecbsystem” and “Fake news”.